Nickel 101 - Part II
Jun 12, 2025
By Gaia Research Team
Reading time: 8 mins.
The 2022 LME nickel crisis led to trading suspension and reforms: 15% price limits, new oversight, and six new brands, raising stocks from 40,000 to 230,000 tons by late 2024 (+59% volume). Shanghai’s SHFE challenges LME, opening futures to foreigners in mid-2025; its SMM index sets ferronickel prices. CME, ICE, and Abaxx expand futures, while bilateral markets for Class II (ferronickel, NPI) often use Chinese prices. LME prices for pure nickel misalign with Class II, fueling LME-SHFE arbitrage. Regulatory shifts, like Russian metal bans, disrupt prices.
Nickel 101 - Part I
Jun 12, 2025
By Gaia Research Team
Reading time: 7 mins.
Nickel market faces oversupply until 2027-2028, driven by Indonesia’s production share. LME prices dropped in April 2025, recovering to ~$15,000. INSG forecasts 198,000-ton surplus in 2025. Demand grows 5-8% yearly, but supply outpaces, especially for Class II nickel (NPI, ferronickel). Class I nickel preferred for batteries; ESG concerns limit Indonesian nickel in Western EV chains. LME reforms post-2022 crisis boost stocks; SHFE challenges with globalized futures.
High Costs and Geopolitical Turmoil Shake Investor Confidence in some Gold Miners
May 30, 2025
By Laurent MAUREL
Reading time: 9 mins.
The surge in gold prices is already causing major disruptions in Burkina Faso, both economically and politically. In this increasingly unstable context, it's essential to assess what could change in the short term for the mining industry in a jurisdiction that is becoming more complex and exposed.
What new risks—and potential opportunities—might emerge from this rapidly evolving landscape?
Miners are Starting to Move
May 29, 2025
By Laurent MAUREL
Reading time: 8 mins.
Despite a tense global environment — with persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions, and heightened interest rate uncertainty — the U.S. economy remains broadly resilient.
The uranium sector has emerged as one of the most sought-after plays in the market. The momentum was abruptly reignited by a series of executive orders signed by Donald Trump, aimed at revitalizing and reindustrializing the American nuclear industry. These measures — still in the process of being fully defined — form part of a broader strategy for energy security and reduced reliance on imports, particularly from Russia.
Greenland – Part II: Northern Lights Eldorado
May 23, 2025
By Gaia Research Team
Reading time: 24 mins.
Geologically, Greenland is extraordinarily rich and diverse – so much so that it “would be quicker to list what Greenland doesn’t have” in terms of mineral occurrences (geologyforinvestors.com). From gold and base metals to rare earth elements (REEs) and industrial minerals, deposits are found across the length of the island. However, active mineral sites (those under current exploration, development, or production) are mostly clustered in accessible coastal regions. The inland is dominated by the ice cap and high Arctic mountains, leaving only the ice-free fringe (about 400,000 km²) available for mining (eng.geus.dk).
Within this fringe, certain districts stand out: the far south of Greenland hosts world-class rare earth and precious metal deposits, while the far north above the Arctic Circle holds giant base-metal occurrences.
Several high-value metal projects in Greenland have advanced to late-stage exploration or development, promising significant future production...
Greenland – Part I: Northern Lights Eldorado
May 14, 2025
By Gaia Research Team
Reading time: 7 mins.
The rush is on… but this time it’s not only for gold.
In a global industrial shift rewired by electrification, digitization, and the green transition, demand for critical minerals has moved from background noise to a defining macro driver. Rare earths, graphite, molybdenum, cobalt, nickel, uranium; these aren’t just commodities. They’re the foundational inputs of national security, supply chain resilience, and industrial sovereignty.
In a world racing to secure access to green technologies and strategic reserves, Greenland emerges as more than a frozen outpost. Of the 34 minerals designated as "critical" by the European Commission, 25 have been identified on the island.
A New Gold Rush in China
May 2, 2025
By Laurent MAUREL
Reading time: 10 mins.
This marks a major milestone in China's ongoing strategy of gradual dedollarization. Gold is becoming a central geopolitical tool — both as a means to strengthen the yuan’s monetary sovereignty and as a way to bypass U.S.-dominated financial infrastructure.
The message from Beijing is clear: in the future, the value of the yuan could increasingly be backed by internationally accessible gold reserves, reshaping the global monetary order.
Meanwhile, Chinese demand for gold is surging dramatically.At the same time, China's gold exports are rising significantly as new gold/yuan trading hubs are established with its international partners.In other words, China is gradually seeking to establish itself as a key player in the global gold market. By allowing the international delivery of certain products traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Beijing aims to extend its influence well beyond its borders.
Gold Miners Are Waking Up: 3 Company Spotlights
Apr 25, 2025
By Laurent MAUREL
Reading time: 7 mins.
As the GDX forms a strong bullish engulfing candle, the market appears to be sending a clear signal: capital rotation is underway in favor of the mining sector.
We are likely witnessing the end of a decade-long underperformance of gold mining stocks relative to the broader equity market. All signs point to the beginning of a new bullish cycle — the last of which saw the HUI/SPX ratio (which tracks miners versus the broader market) increase fivefold from current levels.
Intense Volatility Across Financial Markets
Apr 13, 2025
By Laurent MAUREL
Reading time: 11 mins.
Another week marked by intense volatility across financial markets. Trade tensions, geopolitical flare-ups, and a collapse in the bond market — each day brought its share of news, turning global exchanges into a true roller coaster.
But beyond the noise, one thing is clear: gold has once again emerged as the big winner amid the turmoil. The metal ended the week with a double record close — both on a daily and weekly basis.
An Especially Brutal Week for Markets
Apr 6, 2025
By Laurent MAUREL
Reading time: 8 mins.
The primary trigger behind this correction was the announcement of sweeping new tariffs by Donald Trump.
On April 2, 2025, the former U.S. president announced a broad new round of import tariffs targeting both the European Union and several key Asian economies. This marks a sharp escalation in U.S. trade policy, with far-reaching consequences for inflation, consumer spending, and global macroeconomic stability.
Silver Surge
Apr 4, 2025
By Laurent MAUREL
Reading time: 5 mins.
Since mid-March, the COMEX has seen a massive influx of physical silver: over 1,033 tonnes in just two weeks, representing more than 33 million ounces. March 13 and 19 alone saw record inflows of 160 and 131 tonnes respectively, while withdrawals remained modest. As a result, total stocks surged from 13,490 to 14,416 tonnes.
Cobalt 101 - Part II : Pricing Model
Mar 21, 2025
By Gaia Research Team
Reading time: 7 mins.
Cobalt's pricing structure is one of the most volatile in the commodities market, driven by concentrated supply, opaque trading mechanisms, and shifting structural demand. Unlike more liquid markets such as crude oil or copper, cobalt lacks standardized futures contracts, making hedging ineffective and exposing manufacturers and investors to extreme price swings. This volatility is not random but is driven by deep structural inefficiencies, geopolitical fragility, and supply-side bottlenecks. To navigate this complexity, a robust modelling approach is essential, one that goes beyond simple trend projections and integrates stochastic, risk-weighted simulations that account for external shocks.