Introduction

The Double Pareto Dilemma describes a critical mineral supply chain where ~80% of raw mining occurs in one or a few countries (see IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025) and ~80% of refining capacity is concentrated in another set of countries (IEA, 2025).

This 80/80 split creates dual choke points, exposing strategic industries such as electric vehicle batteries and defense systems to significant geopolitical risks.

Concentrated extraction - like the fact that the Democratic Republic of Congo produces more than 70% of the world’s cobalt - and processing (where China dominates refining) often fall under different national jurisdictions, making global industries vulnerable to export restrictions or supply disruptions.

For investors, this structural concentration signals heightened supply risk, potential price volatility, and the need to evaluate geopolitical leverage in commodity portfolios (Peterson Institute, 2022). Unless addressed proactively, this fragile supply chain threatens both industrial resilience and national security.