Deep-Sea Mining 101

Oct 23, 2025
By Gaia Research Team
Reading time: 13 mins.

Deep-sea mining targets polymetallic nodules rich in nickel, cobalt, copper and manganese—strategic metals for the energy transition. The sector is still pre-commercial and sits in a regulatory limbo: the International Seabed Authority (ISA) has not yet finalized a Mining Code, while global pressure for a moratorium grows on environmental grounds. Supporters argue it could reduce reliance on high-impact terrestrial supply chains, but scientific consensus warns of long-term damage to abyssal ecosystems.

Economically, project valuations are highly sensitive to nickel prices, offshore engineering costs and access to long-term offtake agreements. For investors, listed developers behave like binary options on regulation and geopolitics—high upside if a legal framework unlocks projects, but equally high downside from delays, financing risk and political backlash. In short: strategic but speculative.

The Double Pareto Dilemma

Oct 8, 2025
By Gaia Research Team
Reading time: 9 mins.

Recent developments confirm that capital continues to flow into critical minerals despite a subdued price environment. The Trump Administration’s decision to acquire a 10% stake in Lithium Americas underscores the growing focus on national security and resource sovereignty. For long-term investors, this reinforces the strategic case for holding exposure to critical minerals, as geopolitical and nationalist drivers are set to outweigh short-term market weakness.

Nickel 101 - Part I

Jun 12, 2025
By Gaia Research Team
Reading time: 7 mins.

Nickel market faces oversupply until 2027-2028, driven by Indonesia’s production share. LME prices dropped in April 2025, recovering to ~$15,000. INSG forecasts 198,000-ton surplus in 2025. Demand grows 5-8% yearly, but supply outpaces, especially for Class II nickel (NPI, ferronickel). Class I nickel preferred for batteries; ESG concerns limit Indonesian nickel in Western EV chains. LME reforms post-2022 crisis boost stocks; SHFE challenges with globalized futures.

Nickel 101 - Part II

Jun 12, 2025
By Gaia Research Team
Reading time: 8 mins.

The 2022 LME nickel crisis led to trading suspension and reforms: 15% price limits, new oversight, and six new brands, raising stocks from 40,000 to 230,000 tons by late 2024 (+59% volume). Shanghai’s SHFE challenges LME, opening futures to foreigners in mid-2025; its SMM index sets ferronickel prices. CME, ICE, and Abaxx expand futures, while bilateral markets for Class II (ferronickel, NPI) often use Chinese prices. LME prices for pure nickel misalign with Class II, fueling LME-SHFE arbitrage. Regulatory shifts, like Russian metal bans, disrupt prices.

The End of the ‘E’

May 21, 2024
By Gaia Research Team
Reading time: 4 mins.

Bring the end of ‘E’ pillar in ESG practices and emphasize the substantial benefits and more relevance of ‘S’ and ‘G’ practices through real cases from IGO.